Lists & Rankings

2012 predictions and their outcomes


Pundit #1 (right): New York University economics professor Nouriel Roubini warned about the 2008 credit collapse

Prediction: “The eurozone is a slow-motion train wreck,” Roubini said at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2012. “I think Greece will leave the eurozone in the next 12 months, and Portugal after.”

Outcome: Wrong. Greece remains a eurozone member, though a very unpopular one.


Pundit #2 (left): Statistics whiz Nate Silver, author of The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail— But Some Don’t

Prediction: Barack Obama would win a second U.S. presidential term, including 51% of the popular vote.

Outcome: Right. Silver also called each of the 50 states correctly, handily turning the entire presidential election into an ad for his book.


Pundit #3 (centre): Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets, author of The End of Growth

Prediction: A barrel of oil will cost $225 by 2012, spelling the end of the global economy as we know it.

Outcome: Wrong. Oil is trading just above $80 a barrel—much to the chagrin of Alberta’s oil sands industry.