WASHINGTON – U.S. employers are thought to have hired at another robust pace in November in the latest sign that the United States is outshining struggling economies throughout the developed world.
Analysts have forecast that the economy generated 225,000 jobs last month and that the unemployment rate remained 5.8 per cent, according to a survey by FactSet. If those predictions prove generally accurate, November would mark the 10th straight month of strong U.S. job gains above 200,000 and would put 2014 on track to be the best year for hiring since 1999.
The government will release the November employment report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time Friday.
The improving U.S. job market contrasts with weakness elsewhere around the globe. Growth among the 18 European nations in the euro alliance is barely positive, and the eurozone’s unemployment rate is 11.5 per cent. Japan is in recession.
China’s growth has slowed as it seeks to rein in excessive lending tied to real estate development. Other large developing countries, including Russia and Brazil, are also straining to grow.
Most economists say the United States will likely continue to strengthen despite the sluggishness overseas. The U.S. economy is much less dependent on exports than are Germany, China and Japan. U.S. growth is fueled more by its large domestic market and free-spending consumers, who account for about 70 per cent of the economy.
That trend helps support the steady U.S. job growth. Most of the industries that have enjoyed the strongest job gains depend on the U.S. market rather than on overseas demand. Retailers, restaurants and hotels, and education and health care, for example, have been among the most consistent sources of healthy hiring since the recession officially ended in 2009.
Manufacturing, which is more exposed to overseas ups and downs, has added jobs for most of the recovery but in smaller numbers. That is a likely reason why pay growth has been tepid since the recession ended. Companies and industries that are more exposed to international competition typically pay higher salaries.
Temporary hiring for the winter holidays may be providing a boost, though it isn’t clear how much occurred last month and how much in December. Shipping companies have announced ambitious plans: UPS has said it expects to add up to 95,000 seasonal workers, up from 85,000 last year. FedEx plans to hire 50,000, up from 40,000.
The National Retail Federation estimates that seasonal retail hiring could grow about 4 per cent to as high as 800,000.
Most recent figures on the economy have been encouraging. Americans are buying more cars, which will likely keep factories busy in coming months. Auto sales last month rose to their second-fastest pace this year. Car sales are on track to rise 6 per cent this year from 2013.
And a survey by the Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing managers, showed that services firms expanded at nearly the fastest pace in eight years last month. Retailers, hotels, construction firms and other service companies added jobs, the survey found, though more slowly than in October.
The ISM’s separate survey of manufacturing firms showed that factories are expanding at a brisk pace. New orders and order backlogs rose, pointing to steady growth in coming months.
There have been some signs of moderating growth. Consumer spending rose only modestly in October. And businesses ordered fewer big-ticket manufactured goods that month, excluding the volatile aircraft category. That indicates that companies are holding back on investment.
As a result, most economists have forecast that the economy will slow in the final three months of the year to an annual pace of 2.5 per cent. That would be down from a 4.3 per cent pace from April to September, the fastest six-month pace since 2003.