Blogs & Comment

OECD Recovery Numbers

Today’s news covers the announcement by the OECD of a third quarter recovery from the recession. The stories focus on how the OECD crystal ball sees the recovery in Canada being weaker than the other G7 members and not starting till the fourth quarter of this year. There is some historical data omitted from the coverage I read. First Canada seemed to slip into this recession later than the other G7 countries. During the second and third quarters of 2008, Canada had positive GDP growth while every other G7 country’s economy contracted. In the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of this year, GDP declined but less than the average of the G7 and Euro area counties. It wasn’t until the second quarter of this year that Canada’s GDP performance was worse than the G7. The projected average 2009 GDP decline for Canada is 2.6%. Although this is a painful number, especially for the hundreds of thousands of people who lost their jobs, it looks better than the 4.1% average decline for G7 and Euro area countries. According to these numbers the recession was slightly shorter and softer here. The OECD projected 2009 GDP declines are:: U.S. 2.8%, Japan 6.8%, Euro area 4.8%, Germany 6.1%, France 3.0%, Italy 5.5%, U.K. 4.3% and Canada 2.6%