Blogs & Comment

Mr. Goodnews’ V-shaped recovery

In his blog post, Looking for Mr. Goodnews, MoneySense editor Ian McGugan remarks on how he finds most economic and stock market commentary of not much value, except for a handful of individuals who have proven themselves over time. As it turns out, all of the latter are currently bearish on the economy and stock market.
But he needs to find a Mr. Goodnews for a story he is working on in MoneySense magazine, i.e. i) someone who has good track record, ii) is currently bullish, and iii) believes in a V-shaped recovery. So he puts out a request in his blog to readers: do you know of such a prognosticator?
An obvious candidate is Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute(ECRI). His firm enjoys a reputation for having some of the best leading economic indicators around. The Economist magazine said in 2005: ECRI is perhaps the only organization to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. The IMF also said in 2005: ECRI has had a very stellar record.
In the week ending Aug. 14, ECRIs Weekly Leading Index (for the U.S.) rose to a yearly high of 125.0 and is growing at annualized rates not seen in 26 years, since July 29, 1983. It is high time to break from the herd of pessimistic analysts, who will continue to bemoan economic weakness long after the Great Recession is history, Achuthan told Reuters. He added that he expects the recovery to take hold at a stronger pace than any seen since the early 1980s.